Will Iran / Israel tensions lead to war?

The only real question: Who will strike first?

Recently, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and has vowed to punish the United States and Israel. Tehran insists that Iran is pursuing nuclear energy for civilian purposes, not for military use. The question is not: will this situation devolve into a military conflict? The real question is: who will strike first?

Iran does not want anyone to know how close they are to having a nuclear weapon and Israel does not want anyone to know the circumstances under which they will take military action against Iran. In the last few months, tensions between Iran and the United States have risen to alarming levels. The U.S. and its allies are running out of non-military options of pressuring Iran, and Iran is facing economic strangulation.

President Bill Clinton spent eight years insisting Iran could never have a nuclear power plant, but eventually Washington relented. Today, Iran is acquiring impressive missile expertise and a stockpile of enriched uranium. Within a few years, Iran will have, if they do not already have, nuclear warheads atop its missiles. As that point nears, Iran has less reason to negotiate over the nuclear issue. Yes indeed, Israel, Iran and the United States are perilously close to a situation where there seems to be only one option left: military confrontation.

War will happen and Iran will strike first. Iran will strike Israel.


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