Against all odds, Trump is on course to wrap up the Republican nomination
As I predicted months ago, Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.
His clear victory in New York on Tuesday April 19 saw him add to previous victories across the South on ‘Super Tuesday’ and in the key states of Florida, Illinois, Arizona and Missouri.
It was already fairly clear he would win the most votes and delegates in New York and the game is now whether he can win a majority of delegates before the July 18-21 Cleveland Republican Convention. A total of 1,237 delegates is required to win the nomination.
Today, with just under 850 delegates on his side, Trump has now won nearly 70 per cent of the delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination. His closest competitor, Ted Cruz, has not even secure 45 per cent of the 1,237 candidates he would need to win the nomination.
How Trump will secure the Republican nomination
Trump has just fewer than 850 delegates and is about 390 short of the magical number to secure the Republican nomination.
Next Tuesday, April 26, he is set to win around 100 more delegates in Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Pennsylvania.
That would take him to nearly 950 delegates with the possibility of 50 more delegates supporting him if the 50 unbound Pennsylvanian delegates decide to support him.
Then comes the critical state of Indiana on May 3, which uniquely awards all of its 57 delegates to the statewide winner.
If Trump wins Indiana, he will be the republican nominee.
If he does not, considering that he should pick up another 50 delegates in West Virginia, Oregon and Washington in the rest of May, and then sweep all 50 of New Jersey’s while winning 10 in New Mexico on June 7, he still has a very good chance.
That would give him 1,060 if he has not won Indiana or any of Philadelphia’s unbound delegates, and somewhere between 1,100 and 1,150 if he has.
It will all come down to California
California’s 172 delegates will also be in play on June 7.
If Trump wins Indiana and the support of a significant chunk of Philadelphia’s delegates, he could clinch the nomination that day.
Trump is expected to win at least half of California’s 172 and there is a clear possibility that he may win more.
If Trump loses Indiana, he will still end the primary season within 100 delegates of securing the nomination. He will still have 90-95 per cent of the delegates he needs to win the nomination and will just need to win over some of the 200 or so uncommitted delegates to vote on the floor of the Republican convention to be held in July.
The closer Trump gets to 1,237, the more likely these uncommitted delegates will push him over the line.
In other words, the 2016 race is almost certainly going to be Trump vs Clinton.
In such a scenario, the betting markets give Clinton a 72 percent chance to win the Presidential race. Can Trump bridge the gap?
He has six and a half months to defy the odds.
JMD is an enthusiastic private and public events speaker, writer, syndicated columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.